Simulating pandemic emergency scenarios considering mobility patterns through an agent-based model

One of the main policies to contain a pandemic spreading is to reduce people mobility. However, it is not easy to predict its actual impact, and this is a limitation for policy-makers who need to act effectively and timely to limit virus spreading. Data are fundamental for monitoring purposes;however, models are needed to predict the impact of different scenarios at a granular scale. Based on this premise, this paper presents the first results of an agent-based model (ABM) able to dynamically simulate a pandemic spreading under mobility restriction scenarios. The model is here used to reproduce the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and considers factors that can be attributed to the diffusion and lethality of the virus and population mobility patterns. The model is calibrated with real data (considering the first wave), and it is based on a combination of static and dynamic parameters. First results show the ability of the model to reproduce the pandemic spreading considering the lockdown strategy adopted by the Italian Government and pave the way for scenario analysis of different mobility restrictions. This could be helpful to support policy-making by providing a strategic decision-tool to contrast pandemics. © 2021 Copyright for this paper by its authors.

A novel methodology for epidemic risk assessment of COVID-19 outbreak.

We propose a novel data-driven framework for assessing the a-priori epidemic risk of a geographical area and for identifying high-risk areas within a country. Our risk index is evaluated as a function of three different components: the hazard of the disease, the exposure of the area and the vulnerability of its inhabitants. As an application, we discuss the case of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. We characterize each of the twenty Italian regions by using available historical data on air pollution, human mobility, winter temperature, housing concentration, health care density, population size and age. We find that the epidemic risk is higher in some of the Northern regions with respect to Central and Southern Italy. The corresponding risk index shows correlations with the available official data on the number of infected individuals, patients in intensive care and deceased patients, and can help explaining why regions such as Lombardia, Emilia-Romagna, Piemonte and Veneto have suffered much more than the rest of the country. Although the COVID-19 outbreak started in both North (Lombardia) and Central Italy (Lazio) almost at the same time, when the first cases were officially certified at the beginning of 2020, the disease has spread faster and with heavier consequences in regions with higher epidemic risk. Our framework can be extended and tested on other epidemic data, such as those on seasonal flu, and applied to other countries. We also present a policy model connected with our methodology, which might help policy-makers to take informed decisions.